Oct
19
Guest Column: Obama’s Russian Embarrassment
October 19, 2009 |
by Richard Brownell
The naïveté of the Obama administration was on full display this past week after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s trip to Russia failed to drum up support for tough sanctions against Iran. Clinton and Obama had hoped that Russia would join the United States in bringing heavy pressure to bear to stop Tehran’s nuclear program. They had been led to believe as much just a few weeks ago by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. But Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Clinton that diplomacy needed to be given a chance to work and that sanctions would be “counterproductive.”
Clinton was clearly disappointed by the about-face, but neither she nor Obama should have been surprised by this development. Russia is interested in reestablishing itself as a global power, and its actions are motivated solely by that goal. If Iran develops nuclear weapons, Russia faces no real threat from it. They do business with Iran. The two countries are strategic partners. Only the U.S., its European allies, and Israel would be at risk. In the unlikely event the U.S. were to go to war with Iran to prevent development of its nuclear program, the price of oil would skyrocket and Russia would be able to cash in on its own huge reserves. They win either way.
Liberal supporters of Obama’s foreign policy agenda, such as it is, maintain this is a simplistic view, but modern Russia is not a complex nation. Their goals are clear, and they are committed to realizing them, U.S. concessions notwithstanding. And by concessions, I am referring to Obama’s September move to scrap the Eastern European missile defense system. Russia had been against the development of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic since President George W. Bush called for it a few years ago. They believed it a threat to their own nation, though it was explicitly designed to protect Europe from a long-range missile attack from Iran.
Obama said publicly at the time that the system was of no use because Iran was 3-5 years away from developing long-range missiles. We have since learned that the Iranians are much closer to building these missiles than we originally assumed, and we simply have no real idea how long it will be before they are capable of detonating a nuclear device. Recognizing our dangerous lack of knowledge of just what Tehran is up to, wouldn’t it be prudent to proceed with the system anyway?
Obama also stated that the technology just isn’t there yet for effectively deploying the system. This is not accurate, and he was only relying on standard liberal rhetoric that the entire missile defense concept is not technologically feasible. That’s an argument that frankly only a Luddite would embrace. If history proves anything, it is that the human mind is capable of developing whatever gadget is necessary to fill a need. There have been fits and starts along the way to developing a missile defense system, as with any research and development program, but real progress has been made in targeting and deployment in the last decade. For years, liberals have predictably played up the failures and explained away the successes. The failures allow them to argue for reducing funding at precisely the time when more funding is needed to learn from past mistakes and proceed toward a successful system. It’s an interesting little negative feedback loop they have created, and it has slowed the overall progress of the system for decades.
Obama’s public excuses about scrapping the missile defense system and replacing it with some ship-based anti-missile defense in the Mediterranean were only part of the reason behind his actions. He denied this at the time, but it was clear that Obama also hoped to earn points with the Russians by obliquely acceding to their demands to remove the system. His gamble was that by scrapping the system, and irritating our Polish and Czech allies in the process, he would gain Russia’s support in putting the screws to Iran to get that country to give up its nuclear program.
We have now seen that Obama severely miscalculated. Lavrov’s blunt refusal to back Clinton’s call for sanctions against Iran kills the last reason behind Obama’s scrapping the missile shield. Poor strategic thinking and longstanding liberal prejudice against missile defense were also at play here.
Obama’s miscalculation will be an unmistakable blow to American prestige on the world stage. Even if we take him at his word that his decision to cancel the Polish and Czech deployments was not swayed by Russian pressure, the international view that now exists is that America caved to Russia and got nothing in return. And if you need a bigger clue that Obama made the wrong move, consider this: if Dmitri Medvedev, Vladimir Putin, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are pleased with Obama’s call to remove the defense shield and America’s Eastern European allies are upset, then that means that Obama messed up.
Comments
13 Comments so far
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Property Rights
When will we learn/understand that the Soviets, China, Muslims, mid-East, and Asia don’t respect compromise. The only understand and respect strength and play the U.S. and Europe for suckers when we try compromise, appeasement, etc.
Dear Honorable Gov. Gilmore,
I am in complete agreement with you that this President and his administration have no sense of how to manage world affairs and deal effectively with rogue nations. Their inept dealings with the Russians were completely oblivious of the facts on the Russian ship that was allegedly hijacked earlier. This President has done nothing but embarass this nation and unfortunately, I have spoken to many world travelers who have said America’s prestige throughout the world has been seriously diminished by the actions of this administration.
Sincerely,
Pastor Tom Clement
As someone with a deep understanding of our missile defense capabilities here at home and abroad–I agree 100% Obama messed up. I have been working the missile defense issue since 1990–at that time we had only view graphs and the promised visions of scientists of what we could possibly do one day. We also had the vision, experience, and leadership of President Ronald Reagan to forge ahead with the research and development necessary to make this proposed technology a reality. Not only did our best and brightest minds hit the proverbial bullet with a bullet, we created the next level of deterrence, allowing us to move away from the flawed concept of MAD–Mutual Assured Destruction.
Some, including myself, believe that our investment in missile defense technology is the straw that broke the camel’s back and brought down Communism and Soviet Russia. How ironic President Obama likes to look backward and blame the previous Administration for all that he sees wrong in this country and with our reputation in the World. In less than a year, he has managed to undo almost three decades worth of foreign policy geared toward protecting the United States and our allies. President Obama has given the upper hand to those in the world who care least about America–and more importantly–Democracy.
For a President who says he wants to proceed down a path of zero nuclear weapons in the world–I can only hope this is a wake-up call. He may bring down the nuclear arsenals in the U.S., but it is clear our adversaries, and supposed friends, are not likely to follow his lead. The history of the world shows us there has always been a dominant power charged with keeping the peace–and in the absence of that dominant power, there is chaos and war.
Missile Defense is the current and future deterrent against those who wish to destroy American Democracy, and the freedoms we hold dear. It is the preventative measure taken in order to avoid the serious possibilities. The President has let American down, as well as our European allies, with his decision. This is a time in our history where America needs a strong and experienced leader who understands that protecting freedom in the world involves sacrifice–and yes, having enemies.
An experienced leader would invest in the tools to keep those enemies in check in an effort to protect the freedom and democracy we hold dear.
Jim:
Thank you for sharing this with us. Mr. Brownell’s points are excellent. I’ll add a couple of points for consideration by those wiser than me in matters of foreign affairs.
While Russia and Iran are trading partners for now, I think the two are kept in harmony currently only by their profound dislike of American power. Both aspire to be hegemons in South Asia and the Middle East and will be more likely to be in conflict over time. The split will occur more quickly if one or the other were to make a substantial turn toward democracy, but such a turn is hardly inevitable.
On the question of sanctions and the Russian rebuff, it is my understanding that Russia and France are currently pursuing an arrangement under which the Iranians would send uranium to the Russians for initial processing, the Russians would send their output to France for conversion into rods, and the rods would go back to Iran for allegedly peaceful uses. If the Russians can get such a deal and get the United States to go along with it, Russia’s reticence to support sanctions isn’t surprising.
The problem is that the three-nation processing deal has a Pollyana-ish quality about it. What assurance does the West receive that enriched uranium rods will be used only for medical isotopes?
Stay on top of this.
Poe Leggette
UVA Law ‘77
I think that Obama is continuously reducing America’s standing in the world by his inability to realize the severity of dealing with China, Russiam the countries in the Middle East. His actions/non-actions is embarrassing and is causing loss of respect of America and what it stands for.
This Administration must be stopped. The people must be made award of what “President” Obama is about to do. He is about to sign away the Sovereignty of the United States. In December he will be going to Copenhagen for the UN Climate Change Treaty, which he is expect to sign. If he does sign it, the U.S.A. is gone forever. Everyone needs to click on this link to view a short video of a speech by Lord Christopher Monckton. You will be shocked and deeply concerned with the path Obama is taking us down. He MUST NOT sign this treaty.
http://www.globalclimatescam.com/?p=572
David W Childress
Ret Sgt from the Richmond PD
Obama and his administration and his agenda is going to be devastating to America! He intends to rule via “crisis” and wants “crisis” to run rampant for the tenure of his term. He is depending on it and will do everything and anything he can to push through his Marxist “fudamental change” of our Country. He plans to have America “emplode” and then he has his “Czar” in place as a framework for “his” new regime
We have to get over the idea of “compromise”. If it’s right, it’s right, not half and half. No other country in the world respects weaknesss!
We need to clean out this government from top to bottom or we will lose more of our Freedom and end up like Cuba, Venezuela, and other 3rd World countries. It’s entirely too close now and must be stopped. We may have already passed the point of no return.
Gov Gilmore has it straight again. He understands the strategic role of the United States in a very dangerous world.
The whole issue is false.
We are not the world’s police. The US government has already been conquered. We’re debating overseas weapons deployment and denying social security increases to our elderly. We don’t have the money for these wars. The government in the US has been conquered by the international banks, who then use their distribution arms, the “global robber barons” to contribute to the US politicians election campaigns. We all know that the politician with the most money support gets the nomination at the primary level, by either party. And only stays in office if the money is there to campaign. How many candidates drop out because they can’t afford to continue? Our political system has been conquered, and control of the monetary policy was the major strategy. Our polititians, both Democrat and Republican, are owned by big money. The rest of these issues are nonsense, designed to confuse the people as to the real issues. The US government will take the citizens money by forced taxation and fund false wars to keep the global robber barons in power and the people enslaved by debt. The US has already lost, we are a dictatorship now, the chains have not yet been tightened all the way, but it’s coming soon. Sorry US, the price of freedom was eternal vigilance and we slept while our politicains slowly sold us out for personal greed.
The central banks own us, get used to being a slave.
Dear Governor,
I couldn’t agree more. The White House has adopted a policy of apology and appeasement in lieu of any serious effort to develop a strategy that supports US interests. Meanwhile, Putin and Medvedev push forward policies that support Russian interests, Khamenie and Amahdinejad push policies that support Iranian interests and US actions have now placed the republics of Eastern Europe in a political (and geographic) no-mans land.
At the same time, and coincidental to the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize, US nuclear forces are in need of serious modernization if we wish to maintain a credible deterrent force, a need that is increasing, in light of these recent actions both by the US (stepping back from a missile defense capability in Europe) and Iran (reaffirming their position on development of their own nuclear capability). That the wonks in the White House don’t understand the direct relationship between a credible deterrent force and the reduced likelihood of actually using that force is, to say the least, disturbing.
It’s worth noting that the White House also finds itself unable to make a decision on Afghanistan because it doesn’t really understand what is and is not ‘in the US interest.’ Accordingly, they appear to be sitting and waiting for either winter to arrive so that Taliban activity drops off and no decision will appear to have been the right decision (’Taliban operations slow, need for troops no longer clear’) or for some momentous piece of information to arrive that will clearly point to an answer that everyone will agree with, obviating the need for the White House to actually make a hard call.
This lack of clarity also extends to US interests vis-a-vis Pakistan.
At this juncture we can only hope that there will be enough clear thinking among some of the Democrats in the House and Senate that actions will be taken to preserve those essential US military capabilities until there is a change in Congress, and eventually the White House, and that we can then re-address US interests abroad.
We are headed for rough waters.
Very Respectfully,
Peter O’Brien
Governor,
Thanks very much for the concise on the mark assessment of our President and Secretary Clinton’s recent miscalculation. I do not believe any of the verbage about the system we would have deployed. If you go on to the website for our missile defense folks it clearly defines a mature system that works and works well. The entire EU and NATO should have been clamoring for this system and should have sent a damning note to Washington over this policy reversal, particularly because nothing, repeat nothing was gained from the Russian. In my time at Oxford we were repeated warned by my friends in Russian studies that the Russians were back, Putin was a dictator, and to beware their motives. I was a believer then and I’m even more convinced now. The Russians will never join us in severe sanctions on the Iranians, never. The President’s ploy has failed and we come away looking exactly like what we are in this administration, novices. All the best. vr Kenny Chair RPVB
Our Ship of State is foundeing on foreign shores and we have a neophite at the helm. God help us!